The supply shock happening in $BTC right now is MASSIVE

But the fact is, it's MUCH BIGGER in $ETH

On the supply side:
- the inflation rate of $ETH is .1% less than $BTC in last 30 days (1.2% less in last 2 years)
- 40%+ $ETH locked in smart contracts

On the demand side:
- $ETH ETFs had 2x the amount of inflows in the last 2 weeks vs BTC ETFs (+staking coming soon)
- $ETH treasury companies now buying close to 50% of the USD value vs. Bitcoin treasury companies (and they just getting started)

All of this while $ETH remains 1/5th the value of $BTC

Both assets will do well over the coming months, but I think $ETH will continue to significantly outperform

In just 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has surpassed the total market capitalization of silver.

According to the CMC Altcoin Season Index, we have not yet entered the Altcoin season, and it is even leaning a bit towards Bitcoin & big cap alt season.

We are in a bull phase of the market led by $ETH

The question we all ask is whether this will be a bull period where only $ETH grows or if there will be a wealth effect $BTC -> $ETH -> big cap alts -> mid cap alts -> low cap alts?

Looking back at what happened in the last ETH-led bull season (which was 5 years ago, quite a long time), we see that an ETH-led growth season usually has 3 phases

- Phase 1: $ETH runs strong, alts run but not as strong as $ETH

- Phase 2: $ETH runs but not strongly, alts run very strongly

- Phase 3: $ETH runs strong for the final push, alts run strongly but not as much as $ETH, only low cap alts outperform $ETH at that time

If we hope for a bull season like 2020-2021, we are still not out of Phase 1 since the altcoin market cap / ETH market cap chart has been in a downtrend from 4/22 until now.

Phase 2 will be the most important phase. In 2021, this phase lasted 3 months.

this is how an eth-led rally ran last cycle

if this rally is shaped in 2020-2021 way, we're still in eth-led beginning phase

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge | Big Week

Mon/28
*U.S. Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)
*Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
*US, China 3rd trade talks (expected to extend tariff pause by another 90 days per SCMP sources)
*‘Harmonic’ Mathematical Superintelligence Announcement

Tue/29:
*IMF Economic Outlook Update
*U.S. JOLTS
*Earnings: PayPal, Visa, Spotify, MARA Holdings

Wed/30:
*U.S. ADP, Q2 GDP
*U.S. Treasury QRA (borrowing estimate)
*FOMC Meeting: Fed expected to keep rates unchanged but all eyes will be on Powell to see whether he’ll respond to Trump’s relentless pressure, change his tune
*Earnings: Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, arm
*Ethereum’s 10th anniversary celebration
*U.S. Digital Asset Working Group will release report: may include recommendations on funding a strategic Bitcoin reserve

Thu/31
*BoJ Interest Rate Decision: expected to keep rates unchanged
*U.S. PCE
*Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Riot

Fri/01
*Trump Tariffs Deadline, tariff letters
*U.S. ISM, NFP report
*Hong Kong’s stablecoin bill takes effect (similar to the GENIUS Act)
*Earnings: Exxon, chevron

Sat/02: Berkshire Hathaway earnings

Whole Week: Trade-Tariffs Week, Earnings Week, Economy Week, Crypto policy Week, Roman Storm trial

The most important ingredient for the price of any coin (or any asset really) to go exponential is HOLDER ROTATION.

which means after a big move up, old holders need to sell, and new holders need to be there to buy them out

yes for price to go up people need to SELL. here’s why

contrary to popular CT folklore, no one actually buys coins to hold them forever and look at the balance. when people make investments it’s because they’re hoping to monetize the gains one day

CT will do anything in its power to convince you otherwise: “are you telling me i can sell my chillhouse for $10,000 one day?” “no neo, i’m telling you that when you’re ready, you won’t have to” all CT memes for basically any coin are designed to psyop you into never selling

but this is actually bearish behavior. very few people can resist the urge to sell a 10x let alone 100x or 1,000x no matter how delusional they are. therefore the only way a coin can keep going after a substantial move up is if there are enough highly-motivated new buyers to buy out a very big chunk of old holders

a community’s focus should always be on lining up new holders, not on psyoping existing ones. there’s only so far most existing holders can take you

the desire to convince holders to “diamond hand” is understandable, as that can prolong the rally that each cohort of holders can maintain between rotations. but ultimately it is a fool’s errand. every cohort must eventually sell. there’ll always be outliers that stick around for multiple rotations but most won’t do this. communities that focus on delusional diamond-handing and nothing else tend to have one explosive move and then they die and go to zero.

but the best performing assets long term have been the ones where communities were able to consistently and repeatedly perform big rotations where old holders get to sell and new enthusiastic holders buy them out. some high profile examples of this playing out in the last few years are dogecoin, cryptopunks, and solana. whenever a rotation completes successfully, an explosive move follows that breaks everyone’s minds, because typically they didn’t notice that the rotation happened

as i’m looking at the crypto landscape right now i’m not seeing many coins that are about to complete a fresh rotation. there are some that are now beginning the long journey of holder rotation, like eth for example. that might complete within a few years. but for now the old holders clearly control the conversation

but the only asset i can find that has just COMPLETED a massive rotation is bitcoin. look around you. all the big bitcoin influencers are completely new faces. most of them in suits. some of them are robinhood kids trading options. but all of them are completely new

all the data is SCREAMING that old holders are out

it is clear as day at this point. which means you really don’t have much time left

the first mindfuck is coming.

it’ll be way bigger than you think.