🥈 #platinum #shortage #metals
Platinum remains in deficit, pushing metal prices higher.

🔸 A deficit alone does not always guarantee higher prices, but in the case of platinum, it coincides with a revival in jewelry demand and production issues at its key supplier — South Africa. Together, these factors push prices higher.

🔸 Rising gold prices are prompting jewelers to switch to platinum. According to BofA estimates, even a 1% shift from gold to platinum in jewelry could double the metal’s deficit, although this estimate remains subject to debate!

🔸 On the other hand, demand from the automotive industry — platinum’s largest consumer — may decline due to U.S. tariff policies, accelerated electrification of China’s vehicle fleet, and substitution with cheaper palladium, which is currently abundant on the market.

🔸 Years of low prices have led to reduced output and capital investment, limiting supply. According to HSBC, the recent price rebound has done little to change the picture.

🔸 Today, just 90% of global platinum production is profitable (up from 60% at the end of last year), but this remains insufficient to encourage meaningful supply expansion.

➡️Analysts estimate that to close the deficit and trigger new production, platinum prices would need to rise by roughly another 50% — a process that could take years.

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⚠️#monetarypolicy #us #stagflation #USD #stocks #bonds
Trump may be on the verge of bending the Fed to his will. And history shows what usually follows: a surge in inflation.

🔸This wouldn’t be the first time. U.S. presidents have pressured the Fed before — and the results were strikingly similar.

🔸 Nixon (1972) leaned on the Fed to boost the economy ahead of his re-election.
🔸 Johnson (1960s) pushed for easy money to fund the Vietnam War and Great Society programs..

🔸A study by Thomas Drechsel, using data from 1933 to 2016, examined presidential meetings with the Fed. It found that political pressure tends to raise inflation — but without boosting GDP. In fact, GDP often stagnates or declines as inflation expectations rise.

➡️Monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve under political pressure could lead to stagflation which typically harms both bonds and equities, as markets tend to react more negatively to such a scenario than to standard monetary easing. It could also weaken the dollar, as threats to the Fed’s independence undermine confidence in the U.S. currency.

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📈 Scorpi18 portfolio return (25 Jul. 2025):

- WEEK: +0%
- MONTH: +1%
- YEAR: +30%
- SINCE 2014: +734%

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👉 *exclusively for subscribers of 'Scorpi18 Investment Adviser'