The first week of October brings ISM and nonfarm payrolls. The mix remains softening but resilient. The Citi Economic Surprise Index (CESI) has turned higher, GDPNow tracks near 3.3% (q/q, ann.), and core PCE sits at 2.9% y/y with firm consumption. With roughly 100 bps of 2024 easing still transmitting, there is little case to accelerate cuts immediately after the 25 bp “insurance” move. Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty pushed yields higher and trimmed 2025 cut expectations.

Activity points to moderate growth. S&P Global Manufacturing holds near 52 despite tariff and labour frictions. Disinflation has slowed, but not reversed. ISM employment, a reliable lead for payrolls, does not signal a rebound yet. We still expect labour markets to bottom into early 2026. Policy remains tilted toward risk management on jobs. With inflation near 3%, easing should remain shallow unless there is a clear downshift in growth. Rates remain two-way, with the front end anchored by the easing bias and the long end sticky on term premium and supply dynamics. A strong labour print would likely lift yields, pressure equities, and flatten the curve. Further cooling would validate gradual easing and steepen the curve.

On fiscal theatre, a U.S. government shutdown should be a market non-event beyond data delays and headline noise. Essential services continue, back-pay limits income effects, and past episodes have not derailed risk assets. During the 35-day 2018–19 shutdown, the S&P 500 rose close to 10%. Given BTC’s elevated beta to equities, we see shutdown-related dips as buy opportunities rather than chasing gap-ups.

The Week Ahead

Wednesday: ISM Manufacturing (consensus ≈ 49.3). Focus on employment, new orders, and backlogs for payroll lead and Q4 production run-rate. ADP may draw more attention than usual given recent payroll-report controversies.
Thursday: Initial claims and consumer confidence. Watch if last week’s tentative trough in claims holds.
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus +50k, unemployment 4.3%). Treat as a sentiment barometer. Revisions remain volatile. The key question: was last month’s +22k an outlier or the start of a softer trend consistent with ISM employment?

@FBGVentures ❤️

❤️ Markets Stabilize as Vols Drift Lower Into NFP

Crypto is showing tentative signs of recovery after last week’s washout. BTC and ETH have reclaimed 112k and 4.1k, trading at similar levels to last Monday. Despite sizable ETF outflows, particularly on Friday, spot managed to hold sideways through the weekend. This points to quarter-end basis unwinds as a key driver of redemptions, with markets absorbing the selling pressure more smoothly than expected. With spot rebounding, this week’s ETF flows could set the tone for institutional demand heading into a seasonally bullish month.

Vols are trending lower, with expectations that they will drift further as spot consolidates ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls. While there are questions around whether NFP could be delayed if the US government shuts down, markets appear relatively unfazed, buoyed by Wall Street’s gains.

Optimism is also re-emerging in the highly leveraged perp space. Rather than retreating after last week’s liquidations, leveraged longs are back in force. Perp OI has risen from $42.8bn to $43.6bn, BTC-PERP funding rates remain positive, and Deribit is printing 13%. Hyperliquid’s long bias is also climbing back to 57%, up from just 36% last week.

After a volatile month, BTC remains more than 3% higher and conditions look supportive for so-called Uptober. That said, BTC still needs to clear 115k to confirm a renewed uptrend. Options markets reflect this hesitation, with put skew and OI in BTC and ETH slowly normalizing as traders rebuild conviction

@FBGVentures ❤️

September Effect Still Weighs on Markets

Crypto markets remained under pressure as September draws to a close. US equities slid sharply overnight, though Chinese names managed to buck the trend with relative outperformance. BTC is clinging to support at 111.7k, while ETH slipped below the 4.1k threshold that had held since early August. A decisive break lower would put recent troughs back in play, with 107k for BTC and 3.3k for ETH the next levels to watch.

Resilience Beneath the Surface

Despite the sell-off, institutional demand shows little sign of fading. BTC spot ETFs attracted US$241 million of inflows overnight, snapping a two-day run of outflows. Dip buying remains evident, with October 118k BTC calls dominating daily options activity.

As Q4 approaches, historically a more constructive period, optimism persists, supported by looser credit conditions. Markets are pricing in two further rate cuts of 25 bps in October and December. Unless next week’s non-farm payrolls surprises on the upside, that narrative is likely to hold.

@FBGVentures ❤️

Markets are adjusting after the Fed’s 25bps cut to 4.00–4.25%. Equities hit new highs, though guidance points to only 75bps more easing by end-2026, tempering optimism. Core PCE at 3.0% and tariff risks keep the Fed cautious. Bitcoin holds above $116K with \$1.1B ETF inflows but lags the Nasdaq’s 5% rally. The 10Y yield rose to 4.13%, the dollar is steady, and crypto market cap climbed 0.8% to $4.04T. Bias stays bullish, but hedging with 42% IV options is advised.

🪙 Crypto Snapshot
BTC $116K, ETH $4,650, with record $266M ETH ETF inflow. Solana +3% on filings, Dogecoin +2%, XRP steady at $3.05. MC $4.04T, trading volumes $155B (+5%). Fear & Greed Index 55, APAC on-chain activity +10% to $2.36T. Risks: tariffs, regulation

⌨️ TradFi Overview

S&P 500 +0.32% (6,653), Nasdaq +0.72% (22,631), tech and small caps lead. UST 10Y yield 4.13%. Gold stable at $2,650/oz, oil down to $72/bbl. Consumer confidence 56.2, jobless claims 260K

Crypto OI stable, low vol; institutions added $1.2B to ETFs. Equity flows rotate to value/small caps but tech still leads with 60%. Tokenized RWAs at $15B AUM ( +10% ).

👁 Macro Watch
Fed neutral, unemployment 4.3%, retail sales +0.1%. ECB projects 2.0% growth by 2026. Tariffs and geopolitics weigh, while regulation supports crypto.

>>> FBG Outlook
BTC could test $118K if jobless claims
@FBGVentures ❤️