❤️ FBG Asia Colour - 3 Nov 2025

OG Profit-Taking Weighs on BTC

Crypto began November on shaky footing as BTC slipped from 110k to 107k during Asia hours, extending its recent downtrend. On-chain data shows legacy holders moving sizeable BTC sums to Kraken earlier today, a continuation of October’s steady outflows that likely explains BTC’s first red October since 2018.

The view that OG holders are driving crypto’s idiosyncratic consolidation appears reasonable. Recent selloffs, including today’s, came with no clear macro catalyst, even as equities and other risk assets outperform under supportive policy conditions.

Volatility ticked slightly higher over the past week, with skew still leaning toward puts, but market positioning suggests muted fear of another major drawdown. Leverage has largely been flushed out, with perpetual open interest remaining subdued since the 10 October liquidation and funding rates staying flat.

While price action may remain capped until these legacy holders finish redistributing, BTC’s resilience is notable. The market has absorbed roughly 405k BTC in legacy supply over the past month without breaching the 100k level. Despite slower accumulation from corporates like Strategy and Metaplanet, and light selling from smaller digital asset treasuries, spot prices remain well-supported. Even ETF outflows last week failed to break BTC’s current range.

Still, as BTC continues to consolidate in a multi-month band reminiscent of pre-breakout 2024, speculation has emerged on whether this cycle is nearing its end. Whether this marks the onset of another crypto winter is unclear. For now, long-term holders are realizing profits, while institutional inflows and adoption continue to strengthen the market’s foundation.

@FBGVentures ❤️

Tonight’s FOMC is widely expected to be a non-event. The Fed is set to deliver a 25bp cut, consistent with its September dot plot, and Powell is unlikely to offer new forward guidance. The absence of official data since the U.S. government shutdown leaves the Fed effectively flying blind. Without inflation or labour prints, any policy recalibration would be premature.

The on-again, off-again tariff dynamic between the U.S. and China continues to cloud the macro backdrop. At the core are national security concerns around rare earth metals, the lifeblood of AI development and the new technological arms race of the 21st century. Encouragingly, relations between Trump and Xi appear to have stabilized ahead of their expected meeting later this week, potentially laying the groundwork for more constructive trade dialogue.

AI’s Endless Loop of Optimism

AI remains the primary engine of equity market optimism. OpenAI’s influence continues to ripple across sectors, from chipmakers to data centers to energy providers, as investors chase the Ouroboros-like promise of endless AI CAPEX. The comparison to the Dotcom bubble is hard to ignore, but as history shows, markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent.

Crypto Left Behind

In crypto, enthusiasm remains muted. The 10 October flash crash left both retail and institutional players cautious, and order book liquidity has yet to recover. Meanwhile, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are adding to sell pressure as many trade below 1 MNAV. If discounts persist, DATs may be forced into buybacks funded by asset sales, potentially adding another wave of supply to already thin markets.

@FBGVentures ❤️

👀 All Eyes on Trump, Xi and the Fed: The Week That Could Break Uptober’s Streak

🔫 Crypto found its footing after a round of constructive US–China trade talks over the weekend. The agreed framework sets the stage for Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting, where a potential trade deal could be signed.

The outcome of that deal may shape crypto’s near-term path more than Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Still, the key focus for the Fed will be whether it ends its three-year quantitative tightening programme. Any signal of that coming sooner rather than later would support risk assets and re-anchor liquidity expectations.

🇺🇸 For now, BTC trades flat on the month, stuck near its early October levels. With a busy week of Big Tech earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta all reporting, investors are looking to corporate results for direction amid the ongoing data blackout from the US government shutdown. A weak equity tape could weigh on sentiment and risk derailing BTC’s bid to extend “Uptober’s” seven-year green streak.

😔 Domestically, optimism is fading. The government shutdown, now at 26 days, is set to stretch into November, already the second longest in US history, behind only 2018’s 34-day impasse, also under Trump. The Fed is effectively flying blind, with limited macro data, and so are markets. While rate cuts are priced in, the impact of a prolonged shutdown remains underappreciated.

🤷‍♂️ BTC and ETH risk reversals have shifted from heavy put-skew to near neutral, suggesting investors are less defensive. Still, it’s too early to call a bull resumption, not until BTC reclaims 116k to close the month. With multiple macro catalysts in play, crypto is likely to remain range bound before choosing its next leg.

@FBGVentures ❤️