Markets enter October with ISM and payrolls in focus. Growth is moderating but still resilient, with GDPNow near 3.3% and core PCE at 2.9%. Powell’s tone trimmed 2025 cut expectations, keeping the front end anchored while long rates stay sticky on supply.

Labour remains the key swing factor. Strong data could lift yields and weigh on equities, while softer prints validate gradual easing and steepen the curve. A US government shutdown should be a non-event for markets, with BTC dips looking more attractive than chasing gap-ups.

Will Friday’s payrolls confirm last month’s weakness, or was it just noise?

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Markets have shifted from capitulation to recalibration. The Fed’s 25 bp insurance cut reopened easing, but Powell framed it as risk management rather than the start of a deep cycle. With activity still brisk and core inflation near 3%, cuts are likely to stay shallow unless growth clearly falters.

Long-end yields rose on term-premium and supply pressures, equities notched fresh highs, and gold briefly broke $3.7k before settling lower. The USD bounced with Treasuries, a reminder that the one-way dollar short is no longer risk-free.

Miran’s argument that policy remains too restrictive versus a lower neutral rate suggests the hurdle for further easing may be lower than the dots imply. At the same time, resilient consumption and slow-hire/slow-fire labor dynamics mean the Fed can move carefully.

With Europe and Japan no longer clear outperformers, could the dollar be bottoming just as gold and BTC reflect a market that doubts a forceful hawkish comeback?

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Crypto bounced back after last week’s CPI jitters, with risk appetite returning as spot ETF inflows surged. BTC logged five straight days of gains, while ETH saw its biggest inflow in two weeks. Even XRP and SOL rallied on SEC delays, as markets read postponement as inevitability rather than rejection.

Altcoins are now in the spotlight, with CMC’s Altcoin Season Index at 72 and total altcoin market cap hitting $1.73T, both the highest in 90 days.

BTC looks stable above 107k, but sticky inflation and weak job growth could complicate the Fed outlook. Will markets get the clarity they need before the next big move?

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