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Телеграм канал FTU™ Crypto @FTUcrypto добавлен на наш сайт 03.08.2022
Информация о канале обновлена 15.08.2025.

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The supply shock happening in $BTC right now is MASSIVE

But the fact is, it's MUCH BIGGER in $ETH

On the supply side:
- the inflation rate of $ETH is .1% less than $BTC in last 30 days (1.2% less in last 2 years)
- 40%+ $ETH locked in smart contracts

On the demand side:
- $ETH ETFs had 2x the amount of inflows in the last 2 weeks vs BTC ETFs (+staking coming soon)
- $ETH treasury companies now buying close to 50% of the USD value vs. Bitcoin treasury companies (and they just getting started)

All of this while $ETH remains 1/5th the value of $BTC

Both assets will do well over the coming months, but I think $ETH will continue to significantly outperform

In just 16 years of its existence, Bitcoin has surpassed the total market capitalization of silver.

According to the CMC Altcoin Season Index, we have not yet entered the Altcoin season, and it is even leaning a bit towards Bitcoin & big cap alt season.

We are in a bull phase of the market led by $ETH

The question we all ask is whether this will be a bull period where only $ETH grows or if there will be a wealth effect $BTC -> $ETH -> big cap alts -> mid cap alts -> low cap alts?

Looking back at what happened in the last ETH-led bull season (which was 5 years ago, quite a long time), we see that an ETH-led growth season usually has 3 phases

- Phase 1: $ETH runs strong, alts run but not as strong as $ETH

- Phase 2: $ETH runs but not strongly, alts run very strongly

- Phase 3: $ETH runs strong for the final push, alts run strongly but not as much as $ETH, only low cap alts outperform $ETH at that time

If we hope for a bull season like 2020-2021, we are still not out of Phase 1 since the altcoin market cap / ETH market cap chart has been in a downtrend from 4/22 until now.

Phase 2 will be the most important phase. In 2021, this phase lasted 3 months.

this is how an eth-led rally ran last cycle

if this rally is shaped in 2020-2021 way, we're still in eth-led beginning phase

The Week Ahead: infinityhedge | Big Week

Mon/28
*U.S. Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA)
*Saylor expected to announce BTC purchase
*US, China 3rd trade talks (expected to extend tariff pause by another 90 days per SCMP sources)
*‘Harmonic’ Mathematical Superintelligence Announcement

Tue/29:
*IMF Economic Outlook Update
*U.S. JOLTS
*Earnings: PayPal, Visa, Spotify, MARA Holdings

Wed/30:
*U.S. ADP, Q2 GDP
*U.S. Treasury QRA (borrowing estimate)
*FOMC Meeting: Fed expected to keep rates unchanged but all eyes will be on Powell to see whether he’ll respond to Trump’s relentless pressure, change his tune
*Earnings: Meta, Microsoft, Robinhood, arm
*Ethereum’s 10th anniversary celebration
*U.S. Digital Asset Working Group will release report: may include recommendations on funding a strategic Bitcoin reserve

Thu/31
*BoJ Interest Rate Decision: expected to keep rates unchanged
*U.S. PCE
*Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Reddit, MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Riot

Fri/01
*Trump Tariffs Deadline, tariff letters
*U.S. ISM, NFP report
*Hong Kong’s stablecoin bill takes effect (similar to the GENIUS Act)
*Earnings: Exxon, chevron

Sat/02: Berkshire Hathaway earnings

Whole Week: Trade-Tariffs Week, Earnings Week, Economy Week, Crypto policy Week, Roman Storm trial